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☆ Stock-hungry volatility funds, ‘gamma-heavy' options dealers could buoy US equities
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Options strategists believe market gyrations may stay subdued for some time - potentially smoothing the way for further gains in equities. The S&P 500 is up 19% year-to-date, following a 9% gain in November - its best monthly performance since July 2022. Since the VIX tends to move inversely to stocks, market participants watch it closely as an indicator of investor sentiment and positioning. Among the factors closely watched by market participants are the funds that take their signals from market volatility, selling when volatility picks up and buying when it subsides. History also shows that once volatility expectations become subdued, they can linger at low levels for a while.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Ilya Feygin, Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Brent Kochuba, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald’s, Johnston, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Monday, WallachBeth, Nomura Securities, ’, Thomson

☆ Bull market in view after S&P 500 hits fresh year-high
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A close above 4,796.56 on the S&P 500 would confirm that the index has been in a bull market since bottoming out on Oct. 12, 2022, by one commonly used definition. By that definition, the bear market that began when the S&P 500 hit its previous record on Jan. 3, 2022 was not particularly painful. The S&P 500 closed down 25.4% at its lowest point, making this the fourth shallowest bear market experienced by the index since 1928, according to data from Yardeni Research. Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 16% in the three-month period leading up to a bull market. By contrast, the S&P 500 has logged average gains of just 0.2% and 2.0%, in the one-month and three-month period after a bull market is confirmed.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, San Francisco Fed, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: St, REUTERS, Yardeni Research, Reuters, San Francisco, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ Resurgent S&P 500 crests new 2023 closing high after roller-coaster year
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark index closed at 4,594.63, nearly 6 points above its previous closing high for 2023 set in late July. The S&P 500 is up over 19% year-to-date after posting its biggest monthly rise in over a year in November. The S&P 500 reached its previous 2023 closing high on July 31, also spurred in part by excitement over developments in artificial intelligence technology. The megacaps' outperformance has increased their combined weight to well over one-fourth of the entire S&P 500, meaning the stocks' moves have outsized influence on the benchmark index. The S&P 500 currently trades at roughly 19 times forward earnings estimates, compared to a historical average of 15.6 times.

Persons: Mike Segar, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Lewis Krauskopf, Noel Randewich, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Valley Bank, Citigroup, Microsoft, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: Lower Manhattan, New York, U.S

Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, ”, Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ US bond investors brace for Fed rate cuts in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders' confidence was reinforced earlier this week when Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish policymaker, flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead. SOFR FUTURESBond investors also look to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures to gauge expectations of Fed rate moves. The June 2024 SOFR futures have priced at least one Fed cut, while the probability of two 25-basis-point rate reductions was at 76%. An OIS transaction involves exchanging an overnight rate such as the federal funds rate for a fixed one. For instance, in a U.S. two-year OIS transaction, one party receives a fixed two-year rate in exchange for paying the fed funds rate daily over the next two years.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell's, It's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Alden Bentley, Paul Simao Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Dakota Wealth Management, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Atlanta

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

☆ Appetite for stocks drives VIX options as investors guard portfolios
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

VIX options contracts averaged nearly 760,000 daily, surpassing the record set in 2017, according to Cboe Global Markets (CBOE.Z), data as of Nov. 27. Such investors are "looking at trading VIX options as a way to potentially monetize their thinking", he said. Reuters GraphicsThe rise in VIX options trading is a change from 2022 when investors were reducing equities exposure and hoarding cash, according to CBOE data. With the VIX averaging 17 this year, VIX options' trading volume as a share of overall options volume is at 1.76%, the highest since 2020 - a much more volatile year when the VIX averaged 29, according to a Reuters analysis based on Trade Alert data. Timing profit-taking on VIX options in an environment where jumps in the volatility index are fleeting can be difficult, said Roni Israelov, chief investment officer at NDVR.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mandy Xu, That's, Joe Ferrara, JJ Kinahan, Seth Hickle, Roni Israelov, Laura Matthews, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, . Federal, Cboe Global, Gateway Investment Advisers, Reuters, Trade, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Indiana, New York

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

☆ Dollar slips on bets US rates have peaked
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Currencies traded in a relatively narrow range with U.S. markets closing early the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. "I think what we're seeing is a classic case of the market taking the 'path of least resistance.'" The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.4 % to 103.35 , staying close to the 2-1/2 month low of 103.17 touched earlier this week. German business morale improved for a third straight month in November, data showed.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Michael Brown, Jane Foley, Sterling, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ankur Banerjee, Joice Alves, David Evans, Jason Neely, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Trader, P Global, Rabobank, Federal, ING, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, London, Germany, Singapore

☆ Dollar eases on bets US rates have peaked
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. "I think what we're seeing is a classic case of the market taking the 'path of least resistance'," Brown said. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.3% to 103.43, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was about flat against the dollar at 149.53, after strengthening following data that showed Japan's core consumer price growth picked up slightly in October. Separate data showed German business morale improved for a third straight month in November.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Michael Brown, Brown, X's Brown, Sterling, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ankur Banerjee, Joice Alves, David Evans, Jason Neely Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Trader, P Global, Federal, ING, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, London, U.S, Germany, Singapore

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Hefty options 'disaster hedges' draw buyers as US stocks extend rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. Some 100,000 January call options on the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) changed hands on Friday, with a strike price of 27. Similarly large positions in January VIX options were opened on Wednesday and Thursday. The recent large trades, however, are more likely hedges on a portfolio of stocks, rather than wagers on a massive equity selloff, options strategists said. The trades are unusually large and make up about 5% of this month's overall trading volume in VIX options, according to Trade Alert data.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Matthew Tym, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tym, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Susquehanna Financial Group, Federal, Thomson Locations: U.S

Burry also closed out bearish options against the broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index, the filings showed. His Scion Asset Management’s biggest new position last quarter was in bearish options on an exchange-traded fund focused on semiconductors. He bought put options with a notional value of $47.4 million against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.O), according to the filing. The filings also showed that Burry's fund no longer held puts on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Hedge fund Man Group also sold its 1.1 million shares in Nvidia, while Renaissance Technologies LLC sold its entire stake in the company.

Persons: Michael Burry, Burry, George Soros, Carolina Mandl, David Gregorio, Anna Driver, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S, Nasdaq, iShares Semiconductor, Soros Fund Management, Society, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactoring, Man, Renaissance Technologies, Tiger Global Management, Eisler Capital, Man Group, Duquesne Family Office, Thomson Locations: U.S, TSMC, New York

☆ China-linked ETFs draw bullish options bets ahead of Biden-Xi meet
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Other large China-focused ETFs, including the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI.O), KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.P), also showed upbeat options activity, according to Trade Alert data. "It certainly seems that there is generally bullish positioning ahead of the meeting," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, noting that the positions had been built up over several days. Reuters GraphicsInvestors' nascent enthusiasm for Chinese stocks is at odds with how these ETF's have performed this year. Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, said recent bullish options flows into KWEB may be to do with a combination of enthusiasm ahead of the Biden-Xi meeting as well as results from Chinese e-commerce companies JD.com and Alibaba .

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden's, Xi Jinping, Steve Sosnick, Biden, Xi, Sosnick, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, JD.com, Kirsch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, iShares, KraneShares CSI China Internet, Interactive, Federal, Economic Cooperation, Reuters Graphics Investors, Research, Biden, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, KraneShares, San Francisco, Asia

[1/5] A trader reacts as a screen displays the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A benign U.S. inflation report is bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can bring down consumer prices without hurting the economy, a so-called Goldilocks environment that investors believe will benefit stocks and bonds. This does feel like a Goldilocks moment for the entire market.”The data fueled a powerful rally in stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up about 2% on the day, on track for its biggest one-day rise since January. Still, some investors believed it was too early to call a victory in the fight against inflation.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Eric Kuby, bearish, “, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Thomas Hayes, ”, Brian Rose, Jamie Cox, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ankika Biswas, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Reuters, BofA's Global, Fed, Fund, UBS Global Wealth Management, Harris Financial, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Thomson Reuters United States, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Investors wary of lingering Treasury volatility as US stocks rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - A still-jittery bond market is clouding the outlook for a rally in U.S. stocks, analysts tracking measures of market volatility said. At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index, (.VIX), which measures expectations for stock gyrations, has fallen to a seven-week low of 14.13. That could be a problem if Treasury yields - which move inversely to bond prices - resume a climb that has pressured stocks since the summer. A significant drop in Treasury market volatility would be great news for stock market bulls, Purves said.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Stocks, Alex Kosoglyadov, Michael Purves, Purves, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Paul Simao Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Treasury, Equity, Nomura, Capital, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

☆ Falling Treasury yields could turn Fed hawkish if financial conditions ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted U.S. government bonds from 16-year lows. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions could be seen in last week’s 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth biggest weekly drop since 1990. Policymakers have largely refrained from verbally pushing back on the easing in financial conditions during a flurry of appearances by policymakers this week. Analysts at TD Securities, however, believe further easing in Treasury yields will eventually become a "double-edged sword." To be sure, not every scenario sees the Fed in a higher-for-longer posture if Treasury yields continue falling.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Brian Jacobsen, Jacobsen, CME's, Sameer Samana, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Goldman, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, International Monetary Fund, TD Securities, Fed, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States, China, Samana, U.S

☆ Investors spurn options hedges as U.S. stock rally crushes fear
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Fear has plunged in the U.S. equity market following last week's explosive rally, and some options mavens are urging clients to stock up on portfolio protection while it's cheap. Meanwhile, the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's fear gauge, has tumbled to its lowest level in seven weeks. They recommended taking advantage of the drop in volatility to deploy stock replacement trades, which involve swapping long stock positions for cheap call options that would reap gains if the market continued to rally. Investors' equity positioning fell to a five-month low before last week's rally, Deutsche Bank data showed. With investors less exposed to stocks, "they don't necessarily need to be rushing to get hedges now," Murphy said.

Persons: Matthew Tym, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor's Tym, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics, Barclays, Treasury, Susquehanna Financial Group, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Santa

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors seek shelter as U.S. stocks grow more turbulent
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Wall Street’s most closely-watched measure of investor nervousness, the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), on Friday hit its highest in nearly seven months, as the S&P 500 slid for the week. That has left investors piling into other traditional safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold, as well as short-term debt. Rising bond yields have dampened risk appetite, raising the cost of capital for companies and offering investment competition to stocks. Geopolitical uncertainties, climbing bond yields and the risk of more losses in stocks means "investors face fresh uncertainties," they wrote.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, “, Jerome Powell, Brent Kochuba, ”, Rick Meckler, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Equity, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Microsoft, UBS Global Wealth Management, Swiss, Cherry Lane Investments, UBS, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York, Israel, Cherry Lane Investments .

☆ Falling stocks, climbing mortgage rates: how 5% Treasury yields could roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated and mounting U.S. fiscal concerns are among the factors driving the move. Because the $25-trillion Treasury market is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, soaring yields on U.S. government bonds have had wide-ranging effects. "The longer we remain at higher interest rates, the more likely something is to break." Elon Musk warned that high interest rates could sap electric-vehicle demand, which knocked shares of the sector on Thursday. Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. dollar has advanced an average of about 6.4% against its G10 peers since the rise in Treasury yields accelerated in mid-July.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, Powell, Elon Musk, Tesla’s, gravitating, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Reuters, Global Research, Reuters Graphics, ICE, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Treasuries

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

☆ Dollar up after inflation data boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. Data on Wednesday had shown U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid higher costs for energy products and food. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six of its major peers, ticked up 0.11% to 106.63. Sweden's crown , edged up against both the dollar and euro after consumer price data came in higher-than-forecast, adding to risks that the Riksbank could raise rates further. Investors also digested producer and consumer prices data out of China on Friday that showed deflationary pressures were slightly stronger than expected.

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Helen, Jonas Goltermann, Patrick Harker, Adam Cole, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Brigid Riley, Samuel Indyk, Miral Fahmy, Mark Potter, Alexander Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Reuters, PPI, Capital Economics, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, RBC, of Canada, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Israel, Gaza, Sweden's, China

☆ Options traders see larger-than-usual stock swings as banks report results
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Options traders are braced for larger-than-usual post-earnings stock price swings for some U.S. banks, despite signs of cooling volatility in broader markets, options data showed. Big banks, including JPMorgan (JPM.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Citigroup Inc (C.N) are set to report financial results on Friday, with others, including Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), due next week. The biggest U.S. consumer lenders are set to post higher third-quarter profits, in contrast with investment banks still facing a dealmaking slump, analysts said. Options data shows traders braced for a larger-than-usual post-earnings move from Wells Fargo in particular. The options-implied earnings move for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America (BAC.N) and Citigroup also signal a larger-than-usual post-earnings swing, data from Trade Alert showed.

Persons: JP Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Mike Santomassimo, Steve Sosnick, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Richard Chang Organizations: JP, Co, REUTERS, JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc, U.S, Traders, Bank of America, Citigroup, Trade, Interactive, Thomson Locations: New York, Wells Fargo

The dollar index , which measures the currency's strength against a basket of six rivals, was down 0.31 % to 106.03 . The index rose as high as 106.98 earlier in the session after data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 jobs last month. The numbers for August were revised higher to show 227,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast September payrolls rising by 170,000 jobs. The payrolls data showed monthly wage growth remained moderate, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% after a similar gain in August.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, nonfarm, Karl Schamotta, Tony Welch, Helen, Corpay's Schamotta, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chuck Mikolajczak, Rae Wee, Alun John, Marguerita Choy, Susan Fenton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Toronto, Atlanta, New York, Singapore, London

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